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Systems

A profitable system can be hard to come by, but on this page I will provide Paceform members some quick ways to locate value, and thus profit continuously by using the speed figures. I have been gathering data since July 2022, and this research will allow anyone, no matter how little their knowledge of horse racing, to efficiently select which horses to back on a daily basis. The aim of all the research I publish is to make a profit, and I have been recording results to Betfair Starting Prices after commission, a price anyone can obtain. I believe each systems profits will be enhanced by backing at early prices, but they don't rely on these odds to make substantial gains. Therefore, even someone like myself, who is banned from using online bookmakers, can still utilise the Paceform Figures on the Betfair Exchange to profit in a sustainable long term manner.

Experienced users will know it is very difficult to turn a profit at Starting Prices, but such is the edge given by the Paceform Figures when used correctly, that the systems I will reveal can beat the market even under the constraints of using the Betfair SP, and after deducting commission. 

The advantage of using these systems for every member will be:

  • No form study, the numbers do the work

  • Quick and easy to use

  • A consistent daily process

  • Eliminates emotional betting

  • Can be combined with 1% compounding stakes 

  • The Paceform Figures continually work for you

  • Sustainable betting, profitable at Betfair SP

As further data is gathered I will reveal more edges for members, but a system will only be published once it is backed by sufficient research. I have many ideas which I think will interest members greatly, so make sure you keep tabs on this page as it is updated with new systems.

*All systems & research based on UK racing and 1 point win bets. I've avoided Irish meetings due to the inaccuracies in the reported yardages*
 

System 1:

 

The Double Top

Rules:

  • Top Rated by 2 points or more

  • Top rated last time out by 2 or more

  • No maiden or novice races to avoid unrated horses

Results since July 2022:

  • Selections:   438  

  • Winners:       108

  • Strike Rate:  24.66 %

Profit: +21.28 points

Based on 1 point win bets at Betfair SP after commission

Double Top Example

Double Top Example.png

Is the horse top rated by 2 or more?

Check the light blue column highlighted by the black box. As we can see here Wakai Umi is 8 points clear. Rule 1 is passed.

Is the horse top rated last time out by 2 or more?

Check the latest runs, highlighted by the blue box, to see if this is the case. Wakai Umi rated 89 last time, the next best is Tephi on 83, leaving Wakai Umi 6 clear last time out. This rule is passed.

Lastly we need to make sure this is not a Maiden or Novice race, to avoid unrated horses that have never run before.

The red box shows this is a Nursery Handicap, meaning the final rule is passed.

Therefore, WAKAI UMI is a Double Top Qualifier.

Double Top Losing Run Expectancy

Losing Run Expectancy Double Top.png

What can we expect?

The Double Top System has been running at around a 26% strike rate over the 350 bet sample collected to date. We can see from the table above that a 25% strike rate will produce a losing run of 17 for every 100 bets, 22 losers every 500 bets, all the way up to a losing run of 30 for 5000 bets. 

What is a safe staking method to use?

A 1% staking method looks the best to employ here. As members know I personally like to use 1% compound stakes, whereby I increase my stakes every time the bank hits a new high. This takes into account the expected losing runs that cant be avoided, but maximises the growth potential with the compounding effect.

Keys To Success

Don't be disheartened by losing runs, it is just how numbers and variance work. You know what to expect before you start, and if you stake correctly with good bank management the rewards will come your way. Don't give up.

System 2:

 

The Course Specialist

Rules:

  • Top Rated by 2 points or more

  • Top rated or Joint Top Rated at the Course

  • No maiden or novice races to avoid unrated horses

Results since July 2022:

  • Selections:  504  

  • Winners:      101

  • Strike Rate: 20.04 %

Profit: +81.65 point

Based on 1 point win bets at Betfair SP after commission

Course Specialist Example

The Course Specialist.png

Is the horse top rated by 2 or more?

Check the light blue column highlighted by the black box. As we can see here Revolutionise is 4 points clear. Rule 1 is passed.

Is the horse top rated or joint top rated at the Course?

Check the Summary box under COURSE, highlighted by the blue box, to see if this is the case. A bold number here indicates a horse is top or joint top at the course. As we can see Revolutionise has a bold figure of 95 indicating it has the best course form. This rule is passed.

Lastly we need to make sure this is not a Maiden or Novice race, to avoid unrated horses that have never run before.

The red box shows this is a Handicap race, meaning the final rule is passed.

Therefore, REVOLUTIONISE is a Course Specialist Qualifier.

Course Specialist Losing Run Expectancy

Losing Run Expectancy Course Specialist.png

What can we expect?

The Course Specialist System has been running at around a 20.5% strike rate over the 400 bet sample collected to date. We can see from the table above that a 20% strike rate will produce a losing run of 21 for every 100 bets, 28 losers every 500 bets, all the way up to a losing run of 39 for 5000 bets. 

What is a safe staking method to use?

A 1% staking method looks the best to employ here. As members know I personally like to use 1% compound stakes, whereby I increase my stakes every time the bank hits a new high. This takes into account the expected losing runs that cant be avoided, but maximises the growth potential with the compounding effect.

Keys To Success

Don't be disheartened by losing runs, it is just how numbers and variance work. You know what to expect before you start, and if you stake correctly with good bank management the rewards will come your way. Don't give up.

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