I never grew up around horses, or with a family background in racing. My interest stems from a combination of my passion for sport and numbers. My approach has always been to solve the puzzle and locate value.
This view remains unmoved.
Drama – When a Surface Switch Restores the Signal
22 January 2026
Drama’s run at Kempton (6/9/25) was a clear example of how the Paceform Figures can cut through misleading recent form when a horse returns to its preferred surface.
On paper, the most recent run looked uninspiring — a modest effort on turf.
Within the figures, however, that run sat clearly outside the horse’s established performance range under today’s conditions.
Rather than reacting to the headline result, the figures highlighted a familiar and repeatable pattern: Drama performs at a materially higher level on the all-weather than on turf.
Recent form: separating surface from ability
Looking only at the most recent run, Drama recorded a Paceform Figure of 74 on turf — a performance that sat well below the level required to stand out in this field.
That number, however, was not an isolated data point. When the last six runs were viewed in sequence, a clear surface-based split emerged.
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Drama’s Paceform Figures from oldest to newest read:
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28 → 70 → 89 → 94 → 88 → 74
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The distinction was unambiguous:
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Turf runs (red boxes): 28, 70, 74
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All-weather runs (white boxes): 89, 94, 88
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Rather than indicating regression, the most recent turf run simply aligned with a recurring pattern — turf suppresses Drama’s output, while the all-weather allows it to be expressed.
This is precisely the type of situation where raw recent form can mislead if surface context is ignored.
Highlighted: Drama’s last six Paceform Figures — turf runs (red) sit well below the all-weather figures (white).
All-weather figures: restoring the baseline
When attention returned to Drama’s all-weather profile, the picture sharpened immediately.
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On the Paceform Figures for this race:
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Drama was top-rated overall by 2 points
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The top career figure (94) had been achieved under today’s conditions
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Course and going figures both returned 94, confirming suitability rather than raising questions
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Distance and weight ratings sat close to the top of the field, with no contradictions present
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Rather than projecting improvement, the figures showed that Drama had already operated at this level — and that the environment required to reproduce it was firmly back in place.
Why the conditions mattered
The conditions panel was particularly important here.
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Drama’s best-ever Paceform Figure (94) had been recorded at Kempton on the all-weather, under conditions closely matching those faced today. That historical confirmation matters far more than a single recent turf run achieved under unfavourable circumstances.
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In effect, the return to Kempton didn’t ask Drama to improve — it simply removed the constraint that had been suppressing performance.
What this illustrates
Drama’s profile is a textbook example of the Preferred Surface Return angle in practice:
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A recent poor run explained by surface rather than form
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Clear, repeatable superiority on the all-weather
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A top-rated overall position once surface context is restored
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Conditions that confirm, rather than contradict, the best historical figures
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This wasn’t about ignoring recent form — it was about interpreting it correctly.
Why this matters
Surface switches are one of the easiest ways for genuine ability to become temporarily obscured.
When a horse consistently underperforms on one surface but repeatedly delivers higher figures on another, the data provides clarity that visual form lines often can’t.
The Paceform Figures don’t excuse poor runs — they contextualise them.
What to do next
When reviewing today’s races:
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Don’t treat all recent runs as equal — check where the figures were achieved
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Look for horses returning to the surface on which their best figures were recorded
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Use the conditions panel to confirm that suitability has already been demonstrated
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When surface, ability, and conditions align, the figures often restore the signal that recent form has blurred.
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👉 View Today’s Paceform Figures
(See the same process applied to live races.)
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Rob, Paceform Figures
Marching Mac – When Ability Meets Course Suitability
13 January 2026
Marching Mac’s win at Leicester (28/10/25) was a clear example of how combining overall ability with proven course performance can highlight a strong setup — even without a standout last-time-out figure.
This was not a case of chasing recent form.
Instead, the figures highlighted a runner whose established ability level — when paired with a dominant course profile — positioned him to run close to his ceiling again.
Overall figures: a clear ability edge
On the 12-month Paceform Figures, Marching Mac stood out as the top-rated horse in the race, holding a two-point advantage over the next best rival.
That margin mattered. In a relatively small field, it separated Marching Mac as the runner with the highest established performance level, rather than one merely matching the opposition.
At this stage, the profile already suggested ability — but ability alone doesn’t always translate unless the conditions allow it to be expressed.
Course figures: where the edge became decisive
When attention moved to the course figures, the picture sharpened further.
Marching Mac recorded a course figure of 91, which was eight points clear of the next best course rating in the race. That level of separation is rarely incidental and pointed to Leicester as a track where the horse had previously performed well above his peers.
Rather than projecting improvement or relying on assumptions, the figures showed that Marching Mac had already demonstrated his best form under similar course conditions.
Highlighted: Marching Mac’s top overall figure (94) and dominant course figure (91).
Supporting factors, not dependencies
The remainder of the profile supported the setup without driving it.
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Last-time-out: A solid effort, ranking third best — competitive, but not eye-catching
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Distance: Top-rated in the field
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Going: Respectable rather than dominant (4th best)
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Importantly, the profile didn’t rely on a peak last-time-out performance. Instead, the strength of the setup came from baseline ability combined with a proven affinity for the track.
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This is often where these profiles are most reliable — not when everything aligns perfectly, but when nothing contradicts the core strengths.
Why this matters
Some horses naturally peak at specific tracks.
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When the top-rated horse overall is also clearly proven at today’s course, the conditions often allow them to run close to their established ceiling.
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In these situations, course suitability doesn’t add noise — it removes doubt.
What this illustrates
Marching Mac’s profile is a good example of the Top Rated + Top Course angle in practice:
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Clear top-rated horse on the 12-month figures
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Dominant course figure relative to the field
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Supporting distance and going figures
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A solid, non-contradictory recent run rather than a forced narrative
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It doesn’t guarantee outcomes — but it does help identify races where ability and environment are aligned rather than at odds.
What to do next
When reviewing today’s races:
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Identify the highest-rated horse on the 12-month figures
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Check whether that ability has already been expressed at today’s course
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Use the surrounding figures to ensure nothing undermines the setup
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When ability and suitability reinforce each other, the figures often provide clarity that headline form alone can’t.
👉 View Today’s Paceform Figures
(See the same process applied to live races.)
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Rob, Paceform Figures
Time Tested – When Recent Form Meets Repeatable Conditions
9 January 2026
Time Tested’s run at Chelmsford (2/1/26) was a good example of how a strong last-time-out figure can take on greater significance once suitability is confirmed through the figures.
The overall 12-month rankings didn’t outline Time Tested as a standout candidate on their own. It was the most recent run, viewed alongside today’s conditions, that changed how the profile looked once the figures were placed in context.
Overall figures: informative, but not decisive
The 12-month figures reflected a solid level, but they didn’t mark Time Tested out as a standout on their own. Ranked third overall, the profile appeared competitive rather than obvious. It was the last-time-out figure that changed the picture, creating clear separation once attention moved away from headline rankings and onto recent performance.
Last-time-out figures: identifying the separation
When attention moved to the most recent performance, a clearer distinction emerged.
Time Tested recorded the best last-time-out figure in the race, sitting seven points clear of any rival’s most recent figure. That margin was large enough to stand out as a meaningful performance edge rather than routine variation.
At that stage, the question wasn’t whether the figure was strong — it was whether today’s conditions were suitable for that level of performance to be repeated.
Conditions: confirmation within the figures
That confirmation was visible directly on the page.
Time Tested was ranked highest for course, distance, and going, indicating that the last-time-out figure had already been achieved under conditions matching those faced today. Rather than projecting improvement or assuming suitability, the figures showed that the relevant boxes were already ticked.
In this context, the last-time-out figure carried additional weight because the conditions required to reproduce it were clearly in place.
Why this matters
A horse doesn’t need to be top-rated overall to become the most interesting runner in a race.
When a clear last-time-out best is paired with figures that confirm suitability under today’s conditions, that recent performance can outweigh higher overall ratings achieved under different circumstances.
This is particularly useful in races where headline rankings alone don’t tell the full story.
What this illustrates
Time Tested’s profile is a good example of how the figures can be used to bring clarity:
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A runner not top-rated on the 12-month figures
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A standout last-time-out performance relative to the rest of the field
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Conditions boxes that confirm suitability rather than raise questions
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A profile that strengthens once recent performance is viewed in context
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It doesn’t guarantee outcomes — but it does help identify situations where a recent figure is supported rather than contradicted by the conditions in place.
What to do next
Apply this same approach when reviewing today’s races.
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Start by identifying runners with a clear last-time-out edge, then use the Paceform Figures to confirm whether today’s conditions are suitable for a repeat of that performance.
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Use the figures to compare current ability in context, and let the data guide the process before the narrative forms.
👉 View Today’s Paceform Figures
(See the same process applied to live races.)
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Rob, Paceform Figures
Westcombe – When Improvement Reveals Itself
4 January 2026
Westcombe’s win at Kempton on Wednesday 17/12/25 was a good example of how the Paceform Figures can highlight unexposed improvement, even when there’s limited course or distance history to lean on.
Rather than relying on past suitability, this was a case where the shape and direction of the figures told the story — particularly when set against a field made up largely of exposed profiles.
The context: limited history, open questions
Unlike some profiles that arrive with strong course-and-distance credentials, Westcombe entered this race without prior form at Kempton and without experience at the trip.
That lack of history can often introduce uncertainty — but it can also mask improvement when a horse is still early in its career.
Westcombe had just five career runs going into the race, meaning there was still scope for development that wouldn’t yet be fully reflected in traditional form lines.
Paceform Figures: identifying the step forward
When the Paceform Figures were applied, the key signal wasn’t a single standout rating — it was the trajectory.
Westcombe’s sequence of Paceform Figures read:
69 → 66 → 64 → 71 → 83
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The most recent run represented a clear step change, producing an 83 that was comfortably the best figure the horse had recorded to date.
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That improvement mattered for two reasons:
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It came last time out, suggesting current form rather than historical ability
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It meant Westcombe was entering this race as the one with scope for further improvement, against rivals whose figures had already stabilised
In this context, Westcombe’s rating placed him near the top of the overall figures, despite lacking the same depth of exposed form as some rivals.
Why exposed opposition matters
In races like this, raw rankings can be misleading without context.
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Several runners in the field had accumulated solid but familiar figures over many starts. Westcombe, by contrast, had fewer runs but had just produced a figure that exceeded his previous ceiling.
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This is often where unexposed improvers can be underestimated — not because they lack ability, but because the improvement hasn’t yet been fully priced in.
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The Paceform Figures don’t assume improvement.
They simply measure it when it happens.
A different Paceform scenario
This was a different scenario to Weddell Sea.
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There was no reliance on course, distance, or going history. Instead, the focus was on recent progression and how that progression compared numerically with the rest of the field.
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It’s a reminder that the figures aren’t just about identifying proven profiles — they’re equally effective at highlighting change, especially when that change occurs against exposed opposition.
What this illustrates
Westcombe’s win is a good example of the type of situation the Paceform Figures are designed to surface:
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Limited career exposure
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A clear step forward in the most recent figure
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Improvement that stands out once placed alongside the opposition
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It doesn’t guarantee outcomes — but it does help bring clarity where traditional form can lag behind reality.
What to do next
Apply this same principle when reviewing today’s races.
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Look for runners with few career starts, then assess whether the Paceform Figures show a recent step forward that hasn’t yet been absorbed by the wider market.
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Use the figures to compare current ability, not reputation — and let the data speak before the narrative forms.
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👉 View Today’s Paceform Figures
(See the same process applied to live races.)
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Rob, Paceform Figures
Weddell Sea – When the Data Aligns
17 December 2025
Weddell Sea’s win at Newcastle on Tuesday 16/12/25 stood out not because of a single number, but because multiple independent data points were pointing in the same direction beforehand.
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This was a clear example of how the Significant Stats and the Paceform Figures often work well together — the stats providing historical context, and the figures quantifying current ability for direct comparison with the opposition.
Significant Stats: the starting signal
On the Significant Stats page, Weddell Sea appeared in two separate sections on the day:
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Significant Class Droppers
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Significant Course & Distance Form
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That combination is rare by design.
In the class dropper section, Weddell Sea showed strong, repeatable AW form at the level, rather than a single standout run.
In the course and distance section, the horse again qualified on relevant Newcastle form, reinforcing suitability under the day’s conditions.
The Significant Stats deliberately filter out volatile profiles in favour of reliability and consistency.
When a horse appears more than once, it’s usually a sign that the context is right.
Paceform Figures: confirmation, not discovery
When the Paceform Figures were added into the picture, that context was reinforced rather than contradicted.
Weddell Sea:
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Recorded the best Paceform Figure overall (88)
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Posted the best last-time-out figure (80)
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Ranked highest for course, distance, and going
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Rather than introducing something new, the figures confirmed what the stats were already suggesting — that this was a horse arriving in the right level of form with the strongest overall and recent figures in the race.
Why this matters
This is a good example of how the two tools complement each other.
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The Significant Stats highlight historical reliability and suitability under today’s conditions.
The Paceform Figures go further by measuring current performance in numeric terms and placing it directly against the opposition, providing clarity that the stats alone can’t offer.
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When both point in the same direction, it doesn’t guarantee an outcome — but it does help reduce uncertainty and improve clarity.
A typical Paceform scenario
This is a typical example of the type of scenario the Paceform Figures are designed to highlight — not a single eye-catching number, but a clear alignment between historical context and current performance.
Used together, the free Significant Stats and the Paceform Figures help identify situations where the data is telling a consistent story.
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For newer users, this is a good example of how to use the free Significant Stats as a starting point, then bring in the Paceform Figures to assess current ability and compare a horse directly with its rivals.
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What to do next
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Apply this same analytical framework to today’s racing.
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Start by identifying runners on the Significant Stats page, then use the Paceform Figures to assess current ability and compare them directly with the opposition — using data, not emotion.
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👉 View Today’s Paceform Figures
(See the same process applied to live races.)
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Rob, Paceform Figures
Figures in Focus: Stratusnine’s 92 Signals More to Come
16 December 2025
Stratusnine caught the eye when winning a Class 3 handicap over 6f at Wolverhampton on 8 December, producing a performance that stood out clearly on both time and sectionals.
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Stopping the clock at 72.00 seconds, the gelding recorded the fastest 6f time on the card by a wide margin. To put that into context, the performance was over 16 lengths quicker than the maiden winner in the previous race, more than 13 lengths faster than the winner of the following 6f handicap, and almost 7 lengths quicker than Twilight Madness, who landed another 6f handicap later on the card.
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The race itself was run at an even pace, allowing the form to be assessed cleanly. Stratusnine was positioned close to the speed throughout and travelled strongly, showing no signs of being pressured into the effort. When a gap appeared up the rail entering the straight, he quickened decisively and went on to win by 2¼ lengths, doing so with something in hand and without maximum urging from his jockey.
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From a finishing speed perspective, the performance was equally convincing. Stratusnine ran the final two furlongs in 22.46 seconds, with both furlongs run in 11.23 seconds — quicker than all eight of his rivals and notably strong through the line, suggesting the effort was sustained rather than pace-assisted.
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The performance earned a Paceform Figure of 92, which is significant in this context. The average Class 3 older-horse handicap winner typically records a figure of 90, so a 92 indicates a level of performance capable of holding up in a stronger grade. Given the manner of the victory, there is a reasonable case to suggest the figure may not fully capture his ceiling.​​​​
Looking at the wider profile adds further substance. This was only Stratusnine’s second start on the all-weather, just his second run following a 402-day absence and a gelding operation, and only the sixth run of his career. The step forward from his previous figures is clear, and the conditions of the race offer little reason to downgrade the merit of the effort.
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Taken together — the time, the even pace, the strong closing sectionals, and the profile — this was a performance that stands up well on objective analysis. Stratusnine is a horse to keep firmly in mind over the winter months, particularly if continuing in similar conditions, as the Paceform data suggests there could be more to come.
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This is a typical example of the type of horse the Paceform Figures are designed to highlight — a performance that stands out on the data and points scope for further improvement.
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Rob, Paceform Figures