I never grew up around horses, or with a family background in racing. My interest stems from a combination of my passion for sport and numbers. My approach has always been to solve the puzzle and locate value.
This view remains unmoved.
Weddell Sea – When the Data Aligns
17 December 2025
Weddell Sea’s win at Newcastle on Tuesday 16/12/25 stood out not because of a single number, but because multiple independent data points were pointing in the same direction beforehand.
This was a clear example of how the Significant Stats and the Paceform Figures are designed to work together — the stats providing historical context, and the figures doing the heavier lifting by quantifying current ability and allowing direct comparison with the opposition.
Significant Stats: the starting signal
On the Significant Stats page, Weddell Sea appeared in two separate sections on the day:
-
Significant Class Droppers
-
Significant Course & Distance Form
That combination is rare by design.
In the class dropper section, Weddell Sea showed strong, repeatable AW form at the level, rather than a single standout run.
In the course and distance section, the horse again qualified on relevant Newcastle form, reinforcing suitability under the day’s conditions.
The Significant Stats deliberately filter out volatile profiles in favour of reliability and consistency.
When a horse appears more than once, it’s usually a sign that the context is right.
Paceform Figures: confirmation, not discovery
When the Paceform Figures were added into the picture, that context was reinforced rather than contradicted.
Weddell Sea:
-
Recorded the best Paceform Figure overall (88)
-
Achieved that figure over this course and distance
-
Posted the best last-time-out figure (80)
-
Ranked highest for course, distance, and going
Rather than introducing something new, the figures confirmed what the stats were already suggesting — that this was a horse arriving in the right level of form and well suited by conditions.
Why this matters
This is a good example of how the two tools complement each other.
The Significant Stats highlight historical reliability and suitability under today’s conditions.
The Paceform Figures go further by measuring current performance in numeric terms and placing it directly against the opposition, providing clarity that the stats alone can’t offer.
When both point in the same direction, it doesn’t guarantee an outcome — but it does help reduce uncertainty and improve clarity.
A typical Paceform scenario
This is a typical example of the type of scenario the Paceform Figures are designed to highlight — not a single eye-catching number, but a clear alignment between historical context and current performance.
Used together, the free Significant Stats and the Paceform Figures help identify situations where the data is telling a consistent story.
For newer users, this is a good example of how to use the free Significant Stats as a starting point, then bring in the Paceform Figures to assess current ability and compare a horse directly with its rivals.
Rob, Paceform Figures
Figures in Focus: Stratusnine’s 92 Signals More to Come
16 December 2025
Stratusnine caught the eye when winning a Class 3 handicap over 6f at Wolverhampton on 8 December, producing a performance that stood out clearly on both time and sectionals.
Stopping the clock at 72.00 seconds, the gelding recorded the fastest 6f time on the card by a wide margin. To put that into context, the performance was over 16 lengths quicker than the maiden winner in the previous race, more than 13 lengths faster than the winner of the following 6f handicap, and almost 7 lengths quicker than Twilight Madness, who landed another 6f handicap later on the card.
The race itself was run at an even pace, allowing the form to be assessed cleanly. Stratusnine was positioned close to the speed throughout and travelled strongly, showing no signs of being pressured into the effort. When a gap appeared up the rail entering the straight, he quickened decisively and went on to win by 2¼ lengths, doing so with something in hand and without maximum urging from his jockey.
From a finishing speed perspective, the performance was equally convincing. Stratusnine ran the final two furlongs in 22.46 seconds, with both furlongs run in 11.23 seconds — quicker than all eight of his rivals and notably strong through the line, suggesting the effort was sustained rather than pace-assisted.
The performance earned a Paceform Figure of 92, which is significant in this context. The average Class 3 older-horse handicap winner typically records a figure of 90, so a 92 indicates a level of performance capable of holding up in a stronger grade. Given the manner of the victory, there is a reasonable case to suggest the figure may not fully capture his ceiling.
Looking at the wider profile adds further substance. This was only Stratusnine’s second start on the all-weather, just his second run following a 402-day absence and a gelding operation, and only the sixth run of his career. The step forward from his previous figures is clear, and the conditions of the race offer little reason to downgrade the merit of the effort.
Taken together — the time, the even pace, the strong closing sectionals, and the profile — this was a performance that stands up well on objective analysis. Stratusnine is a horse to keep firmly in mind over the winter months, particularly if continuing in similar conditions, as the Paceform data suggests there could be more to come.
This is a typical example of the type of horse the Paceform Figures are designed to highlight — a performance that stands out on the data and points to future opportunity.
Rob, Paceform Figures