I never grew up around horses, or with a family background in racing. My interest stems from a combination of my passion for sport and numbers. My approach has always been to solve the puzzle and locate value.
This view remains unmoved.
2026 Derby Preview – What the Paceform Figures Say
4 June 2026
The Betfred Derby takes place at Epsom on Saturday and recent history suggests the race has largely belonged to Aidan O'Brien.
The Ballydoyle trainer has won nine of the last fourteen runnings, including each of the last three renewals, and is responsible for four runners in this year's field. Notably, those four runners occupy four of the top five positions on the Paceform Figures.
History also suggests caution when trying to identify O'Brien's supposed first string. Of his nine Derby winners during the last fourteen years, only four started as the shortest-priced Ballydoyle runner. The other five were not perceived by the market to be the stable's leading chance.
With rain forecast before the weekend, the 2026 Derby is likely to be run on good to soft or softer ground.
A/E (Actual vs Expected) measures whether a sire performs better or worse than the betting market expects. A figure above 1.00 is positive, while below 1.00 suggests underperformance relative to market expectations.
Action – Paceform Figure 99
Action tops the Paceform Figures on 99, achieved when splitting stablemates Hawk Mountain and Benvenuto Cellini in the Group 1 Futurity Stakes at Doncaster on heavy ground last autumn.
He has not matched that figure in two starts this season but showed improved form when chasing home Item in the Dante Stakes over 10 furlongs and 56 yards, pulling clear of the remainder before weakening in the closing stages. First-time cheekpieces are applied.
By Frankel, whose progeny are 9/72 (13%) at Epsom (A/E 0.64), 15/108 (14%) on very undulating tracks (A/E 0.71) and 161/841 (19%) over 12 furlongs (A/E 0.96), the overall Epsom record is not especially strong. However, Frankel has already sired Derby winner Adayar as well as Oaks winners Anapurna and Soul Sister. Ground conditions should hold no fears given Action's best performance came on heavy ground.
The strongest figure in the field gives him claims, although he has ground to make up on Item from their Dante meeting and still has to prove he can reproduce his juvenile best over the Derby trip.
Benvenuto Cellini – Paceform Figure 96
Benvenuto Cellini recorded a Paceform Figure of 96 when finishing third behind Hawk Mountain and Action in the Group 1 Futurity Stakes at Doncaster on heavy ground last autumn.
His sole start this season came in the Group 3 Chester Vase, where he stayed on strongly to win by 4¼ lengths over 12 furlongs and 63 yards, answering the stamina question in convincing fashion. He has also shown he can handle some give underfoot.
Like Action, he is by Frankel and therefore shares many of the same pedigree positives and negatives regarding Epsom.
Benvenuto Cellini brings one of the most solid profiles into the race, combining a high Paceform Figure, proven stamina, form on testing ground and the assistance of Ryan Moore in the saddle.
Item – Paceform Figure 94
Item recorded a Paceform Figure of 94 when winning the Dante Stakes on his seasonal return, his first run for 226 days and only the third start of his career.
Held up towards the rear over 10 furlongs and 56 yards, he travelled strongly throughout before finding plenty for pressure in the closing stages to pull 2¾ lengths clear of Action, with Christmas Day further behind. The manner of the victory suggested there should be more to come.
Item is also by Frankel, although unlike Action and Benvenuto Cellini he has yet to encounter ground this testing. Frankel's progeny on ground described as good to soft or slower are 205/1381 (15%) with an A/E of 0.77.
Unbeaten in three starts and already holding both Action and Christmas Day on form, Item arrives with one of the strongest profiles in the race and remains open to further improvement.
Christmas Day – Paceform Figure 93
Christmas Day recorded a Paceform Figure of 93 when winning the Group 3 Ballysax Stakes at Leopardstown over 10 furlongs on good to yielding ground. James J Braddock finished fifth and Pierre Bonnard seventh that day.
His latest start came in the Dante Stakes, where he finished third behind Item and Action, beaten 4½ lengths. While it was another solid effort, it leaves him with ground to make up on both rivals heading into the Derby.
By Camelot, whose progeny are just 2/49 (4%) at Epsom with an A/E of 0.26. His record over 12 furlongs is also modest at 103/877 (12%) with an A/E of 0.75, although there is stamina on both sides of Christmas Day's pedigree.
Christmas Day has already shown useful form this season, but he arrives with questions regarding Epsom and is held on recent form by a couple of his principal rivals.
Pierre Bonnard – Paceform Figure 90
Pierre Bonnard recorded a Paceform Figure of 90 when finishing second to James J Braddock in the Group 3 Derby Trial Stakes at Leopardstown over 10 furlongs on his latest start.
In a small field he raced closer to the pace than the winner and gained first run entering the straight, but was still reeled in late on. The manner of that defeat suggests he may struggle to reverse the form over an even longer trip.
Like Christmas Day, he is by Camelot and therefore shares the same pedigree concerns regarding Epsom.
Pierre Bonnard arrives with solid recent form, but he looks held by James J Braddock on the evidence of their Leopardstown meeting and still has questions to answer regarding Epsom.
James J Braddock – Paceform Figure 90
James J Braddock recorded a Paceform Figure of 90 when winning the Group 3 Derby Trial Stakes at Leopardstown over 10 furlongs on his latest start.
Previously fifth behind Christmas Day in the Ballysax Stakes on his seasonal return, he looked to improve significantly for that outing. Held up towards the rear, he finished strongly to run down Pierre Bonnard late on, shaping throughout as though the step up to Derby distance would suit.
By Zarak, whose progeny have limited representation at Epsom but have already produced two winners from three runners. They are also 4 winners from 6 runners on very undulating tracks and 8 winners from 40 runners (20%) over 12 furlongs with an A/E of 1.06. He also has a heavy-ground victory to his name.
With only four career starts, proven form on testing ground and a profile that suggests improvement for the step up in trip, James J Braddock looks one of the more interesting contenders in the field.
Poker – Paceform Figure 89
Poker recorded a Paceform Figure of 89 when finishing second in a Haydock novice over 11 furlongs and 175 yards on his latest start.
He remains a maiden after three career starts and now faces a significant rise in class from novice company into Derby company.
By Wootton Bassett, whose progeny have an excellent record at Epsom, producing 9 winners from 31 runners (29%) with an A/E of 1.74.
However, despite the positive sire statistics, Poker has yet to produce the level of form achieved by the leading contenders and appears to have plenty to find on the Paceform Figures.
Ancient Egypt – Paceform Figure 88
Ancient Egypt recorded a Paceform Figure of 88 when winning the Listed Newmarket Stakes over 10 furlongs on his seasonal return.
Staying on strongly to score by two lengths, he shaped as though the step up to Derby distance would suit and remains open to improvement after just four career starts.
Like Action, Benvenuto Cellini and Item, he is by Frankel and therefore shares many of the same pedigree positives and negatives regarding Epsom. However, unlike those rivals, he has yet to encounter anything slower than good to firm ground.
Ancient Egypt arrives as a progressive colt with potential for further improvement, but he may lack the proven class of some of the leading contenders.
Rebel Rocker – Paceform Figure 86
Rebel Rocker recorded a Paceform Figure of 86 when finishing second in the Listed Derby Trial Stakes at Epsom over 10 furlongs and 17 yards on his latest start.
Held up towards the rear, he stayed on into second in the closing stages and has the benefit of previous experience around Epsom.
However, the form of that race looks some way below the standard normally required to win a Derby and leaves him well behind the principal contenders on the Paceform Figures.
Course experience is a positive, but on the available evidence Rebel Rocker appears to have plenty to find.
Balzac – Paceform Figure 85
Balzac recorded a Paceform Figure of 85 when finishing third in the Listed Derby Trial Stakes at Epsom over 10 furlongs and 17 yards.
He filled the same position on his latest start in the Lingfield Derby Trial over 11 furlongs and 133 yards, finishing behind Maltese Cross and Bay Of Brilliance. He faded in the closing stages and did not shape as though the extra distance brought about improvement.
That is a concern heading into a Derby run over 93 yards further, particularly given his form already falls some way short of the leading contenders on the Paceform Figures.
Maltese Cross – Paceform Figure 82
Maltese Cross recorded a Paceform Figure of 82 when winning the Lingfield Derby Trial over 11 furlongs and 133 yards on his latest start, his second consecutive victory.
He showed a willing attitude to fend off Bay Of Brilliance in the closing stages, but the overall time figure was ordinary for a race of this nature and leaves him with plenty to find on the leading contenders.
By Sea The Stars, whose progeny are 11 winners from 76 runners (14%) at Epsom with an A/E of 0.87 and 251 winners from 1,463 runners (17%) over 12 furlongs with an A/E of 0.93. He also ran well on soft ground on debut, offering encouragement regarding the likely conditions.
Maltese Cross remains open to improvement and conditions should suit, but both his form and Paceform Figure leave him with work to do against stronger rivals.
Alderman – Paceform Figure 82
Alderman recorded a Paceform Figure of 82 on debut in a Sandown maiden, his best effort on the clock to date.
He remains a maiden after 3 starts and has yet to win at a significantly lower level than the Derby, making this a huge jump in class.
While lightly raced and open to improvement, he has not yet produced the level of form normally associated with a Derby contender and faces a daunting task on his first venture into Group 1 company.
On the available evidence, Alderman appears to have plenty to find with the principal contenders.
Bay Of Brilliance – Paceform Figure 81
Bay Of Brilliance recorded a Paceform Figure of 81 when narrowly failing to reel in Maltese Cross in the Lingfield Derby Trial over 11 furlongs and 133 yards on his latest start.
It was the best figure of his four-race career and suggested he is moving in the right direction, although it still leaves him some way behind the principal contenders on the Paceform Figures.
By New Bay, whose progeny are 10 winners from 51 runners (20%) at Epsom with an A/E of 1.22 and 34 winners from 218 runners (16%) over 12 furlongs with an A/E of 1.04, the pedigree offers encouragement for both the track and the trip. He also has soft-ground winning form, suggesting the likely conditions should suit.
Everything about the pedigree and conditions points in the right direction, but he will need to find significant improvement on anything he has shown so far if he is to trouble the leading contenders.
A Taste Of Glory – Paceform Figure 73
A Taste Of Glory recorded a Paceform Figure of 73 and was well beaten behind Maltese Cross in the Lingfield Derby Trial over 11 furlongs and 133 yards on his latest start.
That performance represented a significant step below the level achieved by the leading contenders and his overall body of form leaves him with plenty to find.
The step up to Derby company demands considerable improvement and, on the evidence available so far, A Taste Of Glory appears to face a very difficult task.
Conclusion
Benvenuto Cellini heads into the Derby with one of the most complete profiles in the field. His Paceform Figure of 96 is among the strongest on offer, he has already proven his stamina with a decisive Chester Vase victory, has winning form with cut in the ground and comes from the dominant stable in the race. At the current best price of 9/4, he appears to have fewer questions to answer than most of his rivals.
The unbeaten Item looks the obvious danger. His Dante Stakes victory was one of the strongest pieces of recent form on offer and, with only three career starts, further improvement is likely. The main unknown is whether he can reproduce that level on significantly slower ground. At 4/1, he commands considerable respect.
For those looking beyond the head of the market, James J Braddock is the horse who appeals most. His profile suggests the step up to 12 furlongs will suit, he has already won on heavy ground and his pedigree points towards improvement under these conditions. At a current best price of 12/1, he looks one of the more interesting each-way alternatives.
1st Benvenuto Cellini
2nd Item
3rd James J Braddock
2026 Oaks Preview – What the Paceform Figures Say
3 June 2026
The Oaks takes place at Epsom on Friday and recent history suggests the race has largely belonged to Aidan O'Brien and John Gosden.
Since 2014, the pair have combined to win 11 of the last 12 runnings, with Dermot Weld's Ezeliya the only filly to interrupt their dominance. O'Brien has been responsible for seven of those victories, including four of the last six.
Final declarations have reduced the field to nine runners. O'Brien is represented by Amelia Earhart, Cameo and Sugar Island, while John Gosden relies on Legacy Link. Ralph Beckett, a two-time Oaks-winning trainer, fields A La Prochaine, K Sarra and On Message. Charlie Johnston saddles Venetian Lace and Joseph O'Brien is represented by Thundering On.
With rain forecast in the build-up to the meeting, the 2026 Oaks is likely to be run on good to soft or soft ground. Run over 1 mile 4 furlongs and 6 yards, the Oaks is already one of the most demanding tests for three-year-old fillies, and any ease in the ground is likely to place an even greater emphasis on stamina.
*A/E (Actual vs Expected) measures whether a sire performs better or worse than the betting market expects. A figure close to or above 1.00 is positive, while significantly below 1.00 suggests underperformance relative to market expectations.
Venetian Lace – Paceform Figure 91
Venetian Lace tops the Paceform Figures on 91 following her third in the 1,000 Guineas, beaten just over two lengths. Making the running in the near-side group, she looked vulnerable late on but rallied again close home, suggesting the step up in trip may suit.
She has never raced beyond a mile in seven starts and has won only once, although she was also runner-up in last season's Fillies' Mile ahead of Legacy Link.
By Masar, whose progeny are 23/140 (16%) over 12 furlongs with an A/E of 0.95, the extra distance offers encouragement. Softer ground is less convincing, however, with Masar's progeny 13/167 (8%) on good to soft or softer with an A/E of 0.68.
The trip may help, but the combination of an extra four furlongs and rain-softened ground raises questions about whether she can reproduce her best figure.
Legacy Link – Paceform Figure 90
Legacy Link recorded a figure of 90 when winning the Musidora Stakes at York on her first run for 215 days.
Keen early, she travelled strongly, moved to the front stylishly and showed a willing attitude when challenged, beating Felicitas by three-quarters of a length with K Sarra a further 1½ lengths away.
By Dubawi, whose progeny are 33/145 (23%) at Epsom (A/E 1.18), 63/261 (24%) on very undulating tracks (A/E 1.15), 214/1099 (19%) over 12 furlongs (A/E 0.96) and 448/2510 (18%) on good to soft or softer (A/E 0.94), her pedigree aligns strongly with the task.
With proven recent form over an extended 10 furlongs and the likelihood of further improvement, Legacy Link arrives with one of the strongest overall profiles in the field.
Thundering On – Paceform Figure 89
Thundering On achieved her figure of 89 when winning the Group 3 Salsabil Stakes at Navan by 3¼ lengths.
Travelling strongly throughout, she had to wait for a gap before quickening clear impressively. The visual impression was that there may be more to come.
Frankel has produced three Oaks winners, although his overall Epsom record reads 9/72 (13%) with an A/E of 0.64, while on very undulating tracks his progeny are 15/108 (14%) with an A/E of 0.71. Distance appears less of a concern, with Frankel's progeny 161/841 (19%) over 12 furlongs and beyond (A/E 0.96).
Ground conditions should hold no fears and she arrives as one of the more progressive runners in the field.
Sugar Island – Paceform Figure 89
Sugar Island achieved her figure of 89 when winning the Staffordstown Stud Stakes by 2¾ lengths from Thundering On on heavy ground.
She failed to match that level on her seasonal return when third in the Cheshire Oaks, beaten 5½ lengths by Amelia Earhart. That was both her first run of the year and her first attempt beyond a mile.
Like Legacy Link, she is by Dubawi, whose record at Epsom, on undulating tracks and over longer trips is notably strong. Soft ground is also a clear positive based on her best performance.
There are reasons to expect improvement from Chester, but she still has ground to make up on Amelia Earhart and A La Prochaine.
K Sarra – Paceform Figure 88
K Sarra achieved her figure of 88 when third behind Legacy Link in the Musidora.
Briefly outpaced before staying on strongly through the closing stages, she shaped as though the step up to Oaks distance would suit.
By New Bay, whose progeny are 10/51 (20%) at Epsom (A/E 1.22), 16/98 (16%) on very undulating tracks (A/E 1.00), 34/218 (16%) over 12 furlongs (A/E 1.04) and 110/778 (14%) on good to soft or softer ground, her pedigree supports the challenge ahead.
With only three starts to her name and representing dual Oaks-winning trainer Ralph Beckett, she remains one of the more interesting improvers in the field.
Amelia Earhart – Paceform Figure 87
Amelia Earhart achieved her figure of 87 when winning a Leopardstown maiden by seven lengths as a juvenile.
She returned with a visually impressive success in the Cheshire Oaks, although the race did not produce a particularly strong time figure and leaves her slightly below the leading Paceform ratings.
As Ryan Moore's mount and representing Aidan O'Brien, she commands respect. However, Camelot's progeny are just 2/49 (4%) at Epsom (A/E 0.26), 7/94 (7%) on very undulating tracks (A/E 0.46), 103/875 (12%) over 12 furlongs (A/E 0.75) and 191/1484 (13%) on good to soft or softer ground (A/E 0.88).
She has the support of powerful connections, but on the known data her profile appears less convincing than her likely market position.
Cameo – Paceform Figure 84
Cameo achieved her figure of 84 in the Group 3 Express Stakes at the Curragh.
Outpaced before staying on into fifth, she shaped as though further would suit and confirmed that view when winning the Lingfield Oaks Trial by 4¾ lengths over nearly 12 furlongs.
By Wootton Bassett, whose progeny are 9/31 (29%) at Epsom (A/E 1.74) and 26/191 (14%) over 12 furlongs (A/E 1.04), her pedigree is a positive. She has also already proven effective on heavy ground.
While her figure leaves her with ground to make up, the likely conditions may help narrow that gap considerably.
On Message – Paceform Figure 81
On Message achieved her figure of 81 when winning at Epsom in April, making her the only runner in the field with a victory at the track.
She stepped up in class at Goodwood last time and stayed on strongly into third, shaping better than the bare result and suggesting further improvement over longer distances.
By Camelot, whose progeny are 2/49 (4%) at Epsom (A/E 0.26), 103/875 (12%) over 12 furlongs (A/E 0.75) and 191/1484 (13%) on good to soft or softer ground (A/E 0.88), the pedigree is less convincing.
She has yet to produce a figure normally associated with an Oaks winner but arrives with proven Epsom form and represents a dual Oaks-winning trainer.
A La Prochaine – Paceform Figure 73
A La Prochaine achieved her figure of 73 when third in the Cheshire Oaks, beaten 3¼ lengths by Amelia Earhart on only her second career start.
Poorly positioned when the race developed, she stayed on well through the closing stages and shaped as though there could be more to come.
By Lope De Vega, whose progeny are 14/84 (17%) at Epsom (A/E 1.03), 45/242 (19%) on very undulating tracks and 130/836 (16%) over 12 furlongs (A/E 0.97), her pedigree suggests conditions should suit. She is also proven on soft ground.
While she remains well behind the leading contenders on the figures, she is one of the least exposed runners in the field and open to improvement.
Conclusion
Legacy Link appeals as the most solid option in the field. She combines a high Paceform Figure, proven recent form over an extended 10 furlongs, a pedigree that looks well suited to the track, trip and likely ground conditions, and is trained by John Gosden, whose record in this race speaks for itself.
It always feels dangerous opposing Aidan O'Brien in the Oaks, particularly given his dominance of the race in recent years. However, at the current prices, Amelia Earhart looks short enough based on the available data. Her Paceform Figure leaves her with ground to make up and the pedigree statistics for Epsom and similar tracks are not especially compelling.
Of the bigger-priced runners, Cameo is the one that interests me most each-way. Her current figure leaves her with work to do, but the step up in trip and likely testing conditions could help bridge that gap. Thundering On and K Sarra also appeal as runners whose profiles may be underestimated by the market.
Elsewhere, Venetian Lace has questions to answer regarding both the likely ground and the significant step up in trip. Sugar Island did not appear to improve for further last time, while On Message has yet to achieve a figure suggesting she is capable of winning an Oaks. A La Prochaine remains one of the least exposed runners in the field and may yet prove better than her current rating, but substantial improvement is required.
Selections:
-
Legacy Link
-
Cameo (each-way value)
-
Thundering On
-
K Sarra
Pride Of Donegal – When Ability, Form and Suitability Align
6 March 2026
This example walks through the exact framework outlined on The Figures Explained page, using a real race as a working demonstration.
The objective isn’t to highlight a result.
It’s to show how the structure works before the race is run.
Step 1 – Proven Ability
Every Paceform race is ranked from highest Top Figure to lowest.
That immediately establishes the ability hierarchy.
In this race, the ranked Top Figures were:
-
Pride Of Donegal – 86
-
Don Simon – 84
-
Market House – 81
-
Francesco Baracca – 80
-
Thankyou Baroness – 70
-
Intinso – 62
The first question from the framework:
Has this horse already achieved a level high enough to win this race?
Pride Of Donegal had.
An 86 was the highest proven 12-month performance on today’s surface (All-Weather).
He began as the clear ability leader.
Red outline: Top Figure column. Black outline: Last Time Out Figure.
Step 2 – Current Form (Last-Time-Out)
Next, we test whether that ability is currently being reproduced.
Pride Of Donegal’s LTO Figure: 83
That sits close to his Top Figure of 86.
This tells us:
• He is operating near peak level
• He is not arriving off regression
• The ability ceiling is active, not historic
By contrast:
Don Simon’s LTO was competitive at 84, but with a lower overall Top Figure ceiling (84 vs 86).
The structure now shows:
Highest ability + competitive recent form.
That combination narrows the field.
Step 3 – Suitability to Today’s Conditions
Raw ability and form must be supported by environment.
Now we test whether the conditions allow reproduction.
We examine:
• Course
• Distance
• Going
• Weight
Course
The strongest Course figure in the race was 84 (Intinso).
Pride Of Donegal showed –1, meaning his best Course figure was 83.
Proven and competitive at the track.
Distance
Pride Of Donegal showed 86 — bolded.
Best Distance figure in the race.
He had already achieved his Top Figure at this trip.
Strong alignment.
Going (Surface)
Best Going figure in the race was 85.
Pride Of Donegal showed –2, meaning 83.
Again, competitive and proven.
Weight
Pride Of Donegal showed 86 — bolded.
Best Weight figure in the race.
He had already delivered his peak while carrying a similar weight.
Conditions panel showing suitability alignment.
What The Profile Looked Like Before The Race
Putting the structure together:
• Highest proven ability (86)
• LTO close to peak (83)
• Best in race for Distance
• Best in race for Weight
• Competitive at Course and Going
This is what alignment looks like.
Not perfection across every column.
But no contradictions.
Ability, form and suitability reinforce one another.
Full race view showing ability, form and suitability together.
What Happened
Pride Of Donegal made the running and won the race.
The ability hierarchy broadly held:
• Top rated won
• Next highest finished close behind
But the outcome is secondary.
The structure was clear before the race.
The figures did not predict improvement.
They identified the runner most likely to reproduce a competitive level under the conditions.
What This Illustrates
This example demonstrates the framework in action:
• Establish the ability hierarchy
• Confirm recent form
• Test suitability
• Look for alignment, not perfection
The figures aren’t designed to create certainty.
They are designed to reduce ambiguity.
What To Do Next
Apply the same process to today’s races:
-
Start with the Top Figure
-
Confirm LTO proximity
-
Read across the Conditions panel
-
Look for reinforcement
When ability, form and suitability align, the profile strengthens.
When they don’t, step aside.
That discipline is part of the edge.
👉 View Today’s Paceform Figures
(See the same process applied to live races.)
Rob, Paceform Figures
When Historic Condition Figures Distort the Picture
18 February 2026
Not every standout condition figure should carry equal weight.
Occasionally, a runner will show dominant course, distance, going or weight figures — yet the 12-month Paceform rating tells a slightly different story. Understanding why that happens is important.
This isn’t about dismissing past ability.
It’s about recognising when that ability hasn’t been reproduced recently.
Overall figures: the current operating level
The blue column, the overall Paceform Figure, represents a horse’s best performance in the last 12 months.
That time filter matters.
It ensures the headline rating reflects current capability — not a peak achieved several seasons ago under different circumstances.
When a horse tops the overall 12-month figures, it means:
Within the last year, it has operated at a level superior to the rest of the field.
That is your baseline.
Condition figures: career bests, not time-restricted
The course, distance, going and weight columns work differently.
These figures reflect career-best performances under those specific variables.
They are not restricted to the last 12 months.
This distinction is deliberate.
It allows you to see whether a horse has ever achieved a high level under today’s setup.
But it also introduces nuance.
If a condition figure is higher than the 12-month overall rating, it tells you something specific:
That peak was not achieved within the last year.
It is historic.
A practical example
In the Wolverhampton 6f handicap shown below:
-
Woodhay Whisper was top-rated overall on 85
-
Water Of Leith showed 91 for course, distance and going
Highlighted: Woodhay Whisper top rated overall (85) despite Water Of Leith's historic 91 condition figures.
At first glance, Water Of Leith appeared dominant on the conditions panel.
However:
-
Water Of Leith’s 12-month overall figure was 84
-
His 91 condition figures therefore exceeded his recent operating level
Those 91s were career peaks — not recent evidence.
Woodhay Whisper’s slightly negative condition markers were not weakness.
They simply reflected comparison against Water Of Leith’s historic highs.
Crucially, Woodhay Whisper had already demonstrated the ability to produce an 85 within the last 12 months — and that was sufficient for this race. That 85 was reflected in the course, distance and going columns as “-6” — simply the difference between Woodhay Whisper’s 85 operating level and Water Of Leith’s historic 91, which was the highest conditions figure in the race. We can conclude: Woodhay Whisper had the highest Paceform Figure in the last 12 months (85) and was capable of repeating that under todays conditions.
It’s not impossible for Water Of Leith to rediscover those old peaks. But without recent evidence, the more grounded conclusion was that he was comfortable under these conditions — but not operating above 84.
The key question wasn’t who once ran the biggest number.
It was who was still capable of running theirs today.
Woodhay Whisper was. Water Of Leith wasn’t.
Why this matters
Historic track form is visually powerful.
But racing performance is dynamic.
A figure achieved two or three seasons ago does not automatically carry the same predictive weight as a recent, repeatable 12-month figure.
The Paceform structure separates the two:
-
Overall rating = current ceiling
-
Condition rating = evidence of past suitability
When those two conflict, recency often deserves greater emphasis.
What this illustrates
This isn’t about ignoring condition figures.
It’s about weighting them correctly.
When a condition number exceeds the 12-month overall rating, it signals:
-
The performance wasn’t recent
-
There is no current confirmation of that level
-
The horse may not be operating at that historic peak anymore
In those cases, the 12-month overall Paceform Figure is the more reliable measure of current ability.
Historic condition peaks confirm suitability — but the realistic ceiling is defined by what the horse has actually achieved within the last 12 months.
What to do next
When reviewing today’s races:
-
Start with the 12-month overall rating as your foundation
-
Use condition figures as confirmation, not distraction
-
Question condition peaks that exceed recent operating levels
-
Avoid letting historic highs override current evidence
The figures don’t erase the past.
They simply help you distinguish past peaks from present capability.
And in competitive handicaps, that distinction often decides which numbers truly matter.
👉 View Today’s Paceform Figures
(See the same process applied to live races.)
Rob, Paceform Figures
Drama – When a Surface Switch Restores the Signal
22 January 2026
Drama’s run at Kempton (6/9/25) was a clear example of how the Paceform Figures can cut through misleading recent form when a horse returns to its preferred surface.
On paper, the most recent run looked uninspiring — a modest effort on turf.
Within the figures, however, that run sat clearly outside the horse’s established performance range under today’s conditions.
Rather than reacting to the headline result, the figures highlighted a familiar and repeatable pattern: Drama performs at a materially higher level on the all-weather than on turf.
Recent form: separating surface from ability
Looking only at the most recent run, Drama recorded a Paceform Figure of 74 on turf — a performance that sat well below the level required to stand out in this field.
That number, however, was not an isolated data point. When the last six runs were viewed in sequence, a clear surface-based split emerged.
Drama’s Paceform Figures from oldest to newest read:
28 → 70 → 89 → 94 → 88 → 74
The distinction was unambiguous:
-
Turf runs (red boxes): 28, 70, 74
-
All-weather runs (white boxes): 89, 94, 88
Rather than indicating regression, the most recent turf run simply aligned with a recurring pattern — turf suppresses Drama’s output, while the all-weather allows it to be expressed.
This is precisely the type of situation where raw recent form can mislead if surface context is ignored.
Highlighted: Drama’s last six Paceform Figures — turf runs (red) sit well below the all-weather figures (white).
All-weather figures: restoring the baseline
When attention returned to Drama’s all-weather profile, the picture sharpened immediately.
On the Paceform Figures for this race:
-
Drama was top-rated overall by 2 points
-
The top career figure (94) had been achieved under today’s conditions
-
Course and going figures both returned 94, confirming suitability rather than raising questions
-
Distance and weight ratings sat close to the top of the field, with no contradictions present
Rather than projecting improvement, the figures showed that Drama had already operated at this level — and that the environment required to reproduce it was firmly back in place.
Why the conditions mattered
The conditions panel was particularly important here.
Drama’s best-ever Paceform Figure (94) had been recorded at Kempton on the all-weather, under conditions closely matching those faced today. That historical confirmation matters far more than a single recent turf run achieved under unfavourable circumstances.
In effect, the return to Kempton didn’t ask Drama to improve — it simply removed the constraint that had been suppressing performance.
What this illustrates
Drama’s profile is a textbook example of the Preferred Surface Return angle in practice:
-
A recent poor run explained by surface rather than form
-
Clear, repeatable superiority on the all-weather
-
A top-rated overall position once surface context is restored
-
Conditions that confirm, rather than contradict, the best historical figures
This wasn’t about ignoring recent form — it was about interpreting it correctly.
Why this matters
Surface switches are one of the easiest ways for genuine ability to become temporarily obscured.
When a horse consistently underperforms on one surface but repeatedly delivers higher figures on another, the data provides clarity that visual form lines often can’t.
The Paceform Figures don’t excuse poor runs — they contextualise them.
What to do next
When reviewing today’s races:
-
Don’t treat all recent runs as equal — check where the figures were achieved
-
Look for horses returning to the surface on which their best figures were recorded
-
Use the conditions panel to confirm that suitability has already been demonstrated
When surface, ability, and conditions align, the figures often restore the signal that recent form has blurred.
👉 View Today’s Paceform Figures
(See the same process applied to live races.)
Rob, Paceform Figures
Marching Mac – When Ability Meets Course Suitability
13 January 2026
Marching Mac’s win at Leicester (28/10/25) was a clear example of how combining overall ability with proven course performance can highlight a strong setup — even without a standout last-time-out figure.
This was not a case of chasing recent form.
Instead, the figures highlighted a runner whose established ability level — when paired with a dominant course profile — positioned him to run close to his ceiling again.
Overall figures: a clear ability edge
On the 12-month Paceform Figures, Marching Mac stood out as the top-rated horse in the race, holding a two-point advantage over the next best rival.
That margin mattered. In a relatively small field, it separated Marching Mac as the runner with the highest established performance level, rather than one merely matching the opposition.
At this stage, the profile already suggested ability — but ability alone doesn’t always translate unless the conditions allow it to be expressed.
Course figures: where the edge became decisive
When attention moved to the course figures, the picture sharpened further.
Marching Mac recorded a course figure of 91, which was eight points clear of the next best course rating in the race. That level of separation is rarely incidental and pointed to Leicester as a track where the horse had previously performed well above his peers.
Rather than projecting improvement or relying on assumptions, the figures showed that Marching Mac had already demonstrated his best form under similar course conditions.
Highlighted: Marching Mac’s top overall figure (94) and dominant course figure (91).
Supporting factors, not dependencies
The remainder of the profile supported the setup without driving it.
-
Last-time-out: A solid effort, ranking third best — competitive, but not eye-catching
-
Distance: Top-rated in the field
-
Going: Respectable rather than dominant (4th best)
Importantly, the profile didn’t rely on a peak last-time-out performance. Instead, the strength of the setup came from baseline ability combined with a proven affinity for the track.
This is often where these profiles are most reliable — not when everything aligns perfectly, but when nothing contradicts the core strengths.
Why this matters
Some horses naturally peak at specific tracks.
When the top-rated horse overall is also clearly proven at today’s course, the conditions often allow them to run close to their established ceiling.
In these situations, course suitability doesn’t add noise — it removes doubt.
What this illustrates
Marching Mac’s profile is a good example of the Top Rated + Top Course angle in practice:
-
Clear top-rated horse on the 12-month figures
-
Dominant course figure relative to the field
-
Supporting distance and going figures
-
A solid, non-contradictory recent run rather than a forced narrative
It doesn’t guarantee outcomes — but it does help identify races where ability and environment are aligned rather than at odds.
What to do next
When reviewing today’s races:
-
Identify the highest-rated horse on the 12-month figures
-
Check whether that ability has already been expressed at today’s course
-
Use the surrounding figures to ensure nothing undermines the setup
When ability and suitability reinforce each other, the figures often provide clarity that headline form alone can’t.
👉 View Today’s Paceform Figures
(See the same process applied to live races.)
Rob, Paceform Figures
Time Tested – When Recent Form Meets Repeatable Conditions
9 January 2026
Time Tested’s run at Chelmsford (2/1/26) was a good example of how a strong last-time-out figure can take on greater significance once suitability is confirmed through the figures.
The overall 12-month rankings didn’t outline Time Tested as a standout candidate on their own. It was the most recent run, viewed alongside today’s conditions, that changed how the profile looked once the figures were placed in context.
Overall figures: informative, but not decisive
The 12-month figures reflected a solid level, but they didn’t mark Time Tested out as a standout on their own. Ranked third overall, the profile appeared competitive rather than obvious. It was the last-time-out figure that changed the picture, creating clear separation once attention moved away from headline rankings and onto recent performance.
Last-time-out figures: identifying the separation
When attention moved to the most recent performance, a clearer distinction emerged.
Time Tested recorded the best last-time-out figure in the race, sitting seven points clear of any rival’s most recent figure. That margin was large enough to stand out as a meaningful performance edge rather than routine variation.
At that stage, the question wasn’t whether the figure was strong — it was whether today’s conditions were suitable for that level of performance to be repeated.
Conditions: confirmation within the figures
That confirmation was visible directly on the page.
Time Tested was ranked highest for course, distance, and going, indicating that the last-time-out figure had already been achieved under conditions matching those faced today. Rather than projecting improvement or assuming suitability, the figures showed that the relevant boxes were already ticked.
In this context, the last-time-out figure carried additional weight because the conditions required to reproduce it were clearly in place.
Why this matters
A horse doesn’t need to be top-rated overall to become the most interesting runner in a race.
When a clear last-time-out best is paired with figures that confirm suitability under today’s conditions, that recent performance can outweigh higher overall ratings achieved under different circumstances.
This is particularly useful in races where headline rankings alone don’t tell the full story.
What this illustrates
Time Tested’s profile is a good example of how the figures can be used to bring clarity:
-
A runner not top-rated on the 12-month figures
-
A standout last-time-out performance relative to the rest of the field
-
Conditions boxes that confirm suitability rather than raise questions
-
A profile that strengthens once recent performance is viewed in context
It doesn’t guarantee outcomes — but it does help identify situations where a recent figure is supported rather than contradicted by the conditions in place.
What to do next
Apply this same approach when reviewing today’s races.
Start by identifying runners with a clear last-time-out edge, then use the Paceform Figures to confirm whether today’s conditions are suitable for a repeat of that performance.
Use the figures to compare current ability in context, and let the data guide the process before the narrative forms.
👉 View Today’s Paceform Figures
(See the same process applied to live races.)
Rob, Paceform Figures
Westcombe – When Improvement Reveals Itself
4 January 2026
Westcombe’s win at Kempton on Wednesday 17/12/25 was a good example of how the Paceform Figures can highlight unexposed improvement, even when there’s limited course or distance history to lean on.
Rather than relying on past suitability, this was a case where the shape and direction of the figures told the story — particularly when set against a field made up largely of exposed profiles.
The context: limited history, open questions
Unlike some profiles that arrive with strong course-and-distance credentials, Westcombe entered this race without prior form at Kempton and without experience at the trip.
That lack of history can often introduce uncertainty — but it can also mask improvement when a horse is still early in its career.
Westcombe had just five career runs going into the race, meaning there was still scope for development that wouldn’t yet be fully reflected in traditional form lines.
Paceform Figures: identifying the step forward
When the Paceform Figures were applied, the key signal wasn’t a single standout rating — it was the trajectory.
Westcombe’s sequence of Paceform Figures read:
69 → 66 → 64 → 71 → 83
The most recent run represented a clear step change, producing an 83 that was comfortably the best figure the horse had recorded to date.
That improvement mattered for two reasons:
-
It came last time out, suggesting current form rather than historical ability
-
It meant Westcombe was entering this race as the one with scope for further improvement, against rivals whose figures had already stabilised
In this context, Westcombe’s rating placed him near the top of the overall figures, despite lacking the same depth of exposed form as some rivals.
Why exposed opposition matters
In races like this, raw rankings can be misleading without context.
Several runners in the field had accumulated solid but familiar figures over many starts. Westcombe, by contrast, had fewer runs but had just produced a figure that exceeded his previous ceiling.
This is often where unexposed improvers can be underestimated — not because they lack ability, but because the improvement hasn’t yet been fully priced in.
The Paceform Figures don’t assume improvement.
They simply measure it when it happens.
A different Paceform scenario
This was a different scenario to Weddell Sea.
There was no reliance on course, distance, or going history. Instead, the focus was on recent progression and how that progression compared numerically with the rest of the field.
It’s a reminder that the figures aren’t just about identifying proven profiles — they’re equally effective at highlighting change, especially when that change occurs against exposed opposition.
What this illustrates
Westcombe’s win is a good example of the type of situation the Paceform Figures are designed to surface:
-
Limited career exposure
-
A clear step forward in the most recent figure
-
Improvement that stands out once placed alongside the opposition
It doesn’t guarantee outcomes — but it does help bring clarity where traditional form can lag behind reality.
What to do next
Apply this same principle when reviewing today’s races.
Look for runners with few career starts, then assess whether the Paceform Figures show a recent step forward that hasn’t yet been absorbed by the wider market.
Use the figures to compare current ability, not reputation — and let the data speak before the narrative forms.
👉 View Today’s Paceform Figures
(See the same process applied to live races.)
Rob, Paceform Figures
Weddell Sea – When the Data Aligns
17 December 2025
Weddell Sea’s win at Newcastle on Tuesday 16/12/25 stood out not because of a single number, but because multiple independent Paceform Figures were pointing in the same direction beforehand.
This was a clear example of how the Paceform Figures quantify both ability and suitability - and how powerful the profile becomes when those elements align.
Ability: a clear overall edge
On the day, Weddell Sea:
-
Recorded the best Paceform Figure overall (88)
-
Posted the best last-time-out figure (80)
This established both a ceiling advantage and confirmation of current form.
It wasn’t simply that he had run well before — it was that his most recent performance was also the strongest in the field.
Suitability: proven under the condtitons
Beyond overall ability, Weddell Sea also ranked highest for:
-
Course
-
Distance
-
Going
That alignment removed the common uncertainty around whether a horse’s best numbers were achieved under comparable conditions.
Here, the historical suitability and current form were consistent.
Why this matters
This is a good example of how the Paceform Figures work when used as intended.
Rather than relying on a single standout statistic, the strength of the profile came from:
-
Overall rating advantage
-
Strong recent performance
-
Proven condition suitability
When multiple figures reinforce one another, the data becomes clearer and more actionable.
It does not guarantee an outcome — but it reduces ambiguity.
A typical Paceform scenario
Weddell Sea represents the type of profile the Paceform Figures are designed to highlight — not speculation, but alignment.
When ability and suitability converge numerically, the edge becomes more defined.
For newer users, this is a practical example of what to look for:
A horse that is not only top rated overall, but also supported by recent performance and relevant condition figures.
What to do next
Apply this same analytical framework to today’s racing.
Look for runners where:
-
The overall figure stands out
-
The last-time-out rating confirms current form
-
The condition figures support suitability
👉 View Today’s Paceform Figures
(See the same process applied to live races.)
Rob, Paceform Figures
Figures in Focus: Stratusnine’s 92 Signals More to Come
16 December 2025
Stratusnine caught the eye when winning a Class 3 handicap over 6f at Wolverhampton on 8 December, producing a performance that stood out clearly on both time and sectionals.
Stopping the clock at 72.00 seconds, the gelding recorded the fastest 6f time on the card by a wide margin. To put that into context, the performance was over 16 lengths quicker than the maiden winner in the previous race, more than 13 lengths faster than the winner of the following 6f handicap, and almost 7 lengths quicker than Twilight Madness, who landed another 6f handicap later on the card.
The race itself was run at an even pace, allowing the form to be assessed cleanly. Stratusnine was positioned close to the speed throughout and travelled strongly, showing no signs of being pressured into the effort. When a gap appeared up the rail entering the straight, he quickened decisively and went on to win by 2¼ lengths, doing so with something in hand and without maximum urging from his jockey.
From a finishing speed perspective, the performance was equally convincing. Stratusnine ran the final two furlongs in 22.46 seconds, with both furlongs run in 11.23 seconds — quicker than all eight of his rivals and notably strong through the line, suggesting the effort was sustained rather than pace-assisted.
The performance earned a Paceform Figure of 92, which is significant in this context. The average Class 3 older-horse handicap winner typically records a figure of 90, so a 92 indicates a level of performance capable of holding up in a stronger grade. Given the manner of the victory, there is a reasonable case to suggest the figure may not fully capture his ceiling.
Looking at the wider profile adds further substance. This was only Stratusnine’s second start on the all-weather, just his second run following a 402-day absence and a gelding operation, and only the sixth run of his career. The step forward from his previous figures is clear, and the conditions of the race offer little reason to downgrade the merit of the effort.
Taken together — the time, the even pace, the strong closing sectionals, and the profile — this was a performance that stands up well on objective analysis. Stratusnine is a horse to keep firmly in mind over the winter months, particularly if continuing in similar conditions, as the Paceform data suggests there could be more to come.
This is a typical example of the type of horse the Paceform Figures are designed to highlight — a performance that stands out on the data and points scope for further improvement.
Rob, Paceform Figures